Sunday 24 June 2007

New Labour Leaders?

Gordon Brown is now the leader of the Labour Party and we know now who is the new deputy leader of the Labour Party - Harriet Harman. For an ex Cabinet-Minister, sacked in 1998 for arguing in public with her deputy it is a bit of a comeback.

So on Wednesday the fight for the next election will start for real. Cameron versus Brown. While the polls may show that Labour now has a three point lead - a bounce for the the incomming PM; this is the froth which I would expect to accompany an uncontested six week crowning of Brown (admittedly ably abetted by the Tory Grammer School debate). Compared to the 15 plus point jump in Conservatve fortunes following Major's assumption of the Conservative leadership from Thatcher in 1990, the recovery in Labour's rating is very modest and easily reversable.

What I expect the next year to show is that Brown and Harman have nothing new of substance to offer. Both have been associated with New Labour since its beginning and Brown has 'previous' at reheating existing policies as new announcements. In my view it will be the Conservatives, with the policy groups setting reporting over the summer, who will be best placed to adopt and articulate the policies that the country needs. Today's election of old New Labour leaders must therefore be a victory for Conservatives.